The World Bank Group has predicted real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 2.1 per cent for Nigeria for 2019, this is slightly lower than the 2.2 per cent it had earlier predicted for the country this year.
The bank also projected a 2.2 per cent growth for the country for 2020 and 2.4 per cent for 2021.
The Washington-based institution stated this in its recently released June 2019 Global Economic Prospects titled: ‘Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment,’
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last month, the Nigerian economy, which is gasping for stimulus, slowed to 2.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 (Q1, 2019),
But according to the World Bank, growth rates in low-income countries were expected to rise to six per cent in 2020, slightly higher than 5.4 per cent in 2019, but said ” is still not enough to substantially reduce poverty.”
Furthermore, the multilateral institution noted that global economic growth was expected to ease to a weaker-than-expected 2.6 per cent in 2019 before inching up to 2.7 per cent in 2020. It, however, anticipated that growth in emerging market and developing economies was expected to stabilise next year as some countries move past periods of financial strain, but economic momentum remains weak.
“In 2020, growth in South Africa is anticipated to rise to 1.5 per cent; growth in Angola is anticipated to pick up to 2.9 per cent; and growth in Nigeria is anticipated to edge up to 2.2 per cent in 2020,” the World Bank predicted.
“Regional growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3 per cent in 2020, assuming that investor sentiment toward some of the large economies of the region improves, that oil production will recover in large exporters, and that robust growth in non-resource-intensive economies will be underpinned by continued strong agricultural production and sustained public investment. “While per capita GDP is expected to rise in the region, it will nevertheless be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty,” it added.
According to the World Bank, emerging and developing economy growth would be constrained by sluggish investment and with risks tilted to the downside.
It listed these risks to include rising trade barriers, renewed financial stress, and sharper-than-expected slowdowns in several major economies, the World Bank says in its Structural problems that mis-allocate or discourage investment also weigh on the outlook.
“Stronger economic growth is essential to reducing poverty and improving living standards,” World Bank Group President David Malpass said.
Growth among advanced economies as a group was anticipated to slow in 2019, especially in the Euro Area, due to weaker exports and investment. U.S. growth is forecast to ease to 2.5 per cent this year and decelerate to 1.7 per cent in 2020. Euro Area growth was projected to hover around 1.4 per cent between in 2020-2021, with softness in trade and domestic demand weighing on activity despite continued support from monetary policy.
“Investment growth among emerging and developing economies is expected to remain subdued and below historical averages, held back by sluggish global growth, limited fiscal space, and structural constraints. A sustained pickup in investment growth is necessary to meet key development goals. Business climate reforms can help encourage private investment.